Sri Lanka’s travel and tourism industry is projected to generate US$ 6.46 billion in international visitor spending by 2036, according to the latest long-term forecast from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).
While the projection indicates continued growth in tourism, it also highlights a significant gap between the sector’s expected performance and the Sri Lankan Government’s ambition of generating US$ 10 billion in tourism revenue from five million international arrivals by 2030.
WTTC estimates that international visitor spending in Sri Lanka will increase from US$ 3.73 billion in 2025 to US$ 4.49 billion in 2026 before reaching US$ 6.46 billion in 2036. Based on the growth trajectory indicated by the forecast, Sri Lanka could potentially reach the US$ 10 billion level around 2045, approximately 15 years after the original government target.
The difference between the government’s tourism ambitions and the WTTC’s baseline projections highlights the scale of growth required for Sri Lanka to substantially increase tourism earnings over the coming decade.
The sector is already facing pressure in 2026. According to Central Bank of Sri Lanka data, tourism earnings declined 11.5 percent year-on-year to US$ 1.79 billion during the first seven months of the year. To achieve the revised annual tourism revenue target of US$ 4.2 billion, the industry would need to generate an average of approximately US$ 480 million per month during the remaining months of 2026.
Industry analysts suggest that closing the gap will require Sri Lanka to focus increasingly on value rather than simply increasing tourist numbers. The emphasis would need to shift towards attracting higher-spending visitors and developing experiences capable of generating greater economic returns per traveller.
WTTC projections illustrate the challenge. Sri Lanka’s international visitor spending is expected to increase by 73 percent between 2025 and 2036, significantly higher than the Maldives’ projected 31 percent growth. Despite that stronger rate of expansion, the Maldives is expected to generate US$ 7.31 billion in international visitor spending by 2036, compared with Sri Lanka’s projected US$ 6.46 billion.
Cambodia provides another important regional comparison. The country is already projected to generate US$ 4.58 billion in international visitor spending in 2025, compared with Sri Lanka’s US$ 3.73 billion. By 2036, Cambodia’s figure is forecast to reach US$ 9.39 billion, more than 45 percent above Sri Lanka’s projected level.
However, international visitor spending represents only one part of tourism’s economic contribution.
WTTC forecasts that Sri Lanka’s total travel and tourism contribution to GDP will increase from US$ 9.92 billion in 2025 to US$ 11.12 billion in 2026. By 2036, the figure is expected to reach US$ 16.62 billion.
As a result, the sector’s share of Sri Lanka’s overall economic output is projected to rise from 9.3 percent in 2025 to 10.3 percent in 2036.
The broader GDP contribution provides a different perspective on Sri Lanka’s tourism industry. Unlike visitor exports, the wider measure includes indirect economic activity generated through areas such as investment and domestic supply chains, as well as induced activity resulting from spending by people employed within the tourism sector.
On this broader measure, Sri Lanka performs strongly against several regional tourism markets. Its total tourism contribution to GDP is projected to be nearly twice the Maldives’ US$ 5.22 billion in 2025 and approximately 39 percent higher than Cambodia’s US$ 7.15 billion.
By 2036, Sri Lanka’s projected tourism GDP contribution of US$ 16.62 billion would be more than twice the Maldives’ US$ 7.07 billion and around 20 percent higher than Cambodia’s US$ 13.9 billion.
The figures indicate that although Sri Lanka is projected to generate less from international visitor spending than some regional competitors, tourism has a comparatively significant connection with the wider domestic economy. Domestic supply chains, investment and employment appear to generate a substantial broader economic impact beyond the foreign exchange directly spent by international visitors.
At the global level, the outlook for travel and tourism remains positive.
WTTC President and CEO Gloria Guevara said the sector not only recovered during 2025 but exceeded expectations in the pace and strength of its rebound. Global travel and tourism contributed US$ 11.6 trillion to the world economy during the year, equivalent to 9.8 percent of global GDP, following growth of 4.1 percent.
WTTC expects the global sector to expand at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent through 2036. If that forecast materialises, travel and tourism could contribute approximately US$ 17.1 trillion to the global economy by then, representing around 11 percent of worldwide GDP.
For Sri Lanka, capturing a larger share of this global expansion will depend not only on visitor numbers but also on addressing operational challenges within the tourism industry.
Guevara has highlighted the importance of stronger cooperation between governments and the private sector, particularly as tourism markets face challenges including labour shortages, skills gaps and restrictions affecting workforce mobility.
Sri Lanka’s tourism employment base is itself expected to expand significantly. WTTC projects that total travel and tourism employment in the country will increase from approximately 991,000 jobs in 2025 to 1.52 million by 2036.
Meeting that demand will require continued investment in hospitality education and workforce development. According to Guevara, countries that position tourism as a national strategic priority, while creating investment-friendly policies, improving connectivity and reducing barriers throughout the traveller journey, are better placed to strengthen their competitiveness.
For Sri Lanka, improving service quality and workforce capabilities will also be important if the industry is to attract higher-value travellers and support premium pricing.
The WTTC findings are based on its Economic Impact Research: Global Trends Report, prepared in collaboration with Oxford Economics, with Chase Travel serving as the Lead Research Partner for this year’s research.
Representing the global private sector in travel and tourism, the WTTC brings together senior executives from leading companies across the industry. Its annual Economic Impact Research measures the direct, indirect and induced contribution of travel and tourism to economic output and employment across 184 countries and 28 regions.
The latest projections suggest that Sri Lanka’s tourism industry has considerable room for expansion, but achieving the country’s ambitious revenue targets will require more than increasing arrivals. Stronger visitor spending, higher-value tourism products, improved workforce capabilities, investment and closer public-private cooperation will all be critical to closing the gap between Sri Lanka’s tourism ambitions and its projected growth trajectory.
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